Athanasios Orphanides

       Contact Information:

       Mail: Division of Monetary Affairs
               Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
               Washington DC 20551
               USA

       Phone:  +1-202-452-2654

       E-mail:  Athanasios.Orphanides@frb.gov

       Link to personal FRB website

       Link to EconPapers website


Orphanides, A., "Taylor Rules" (2007), [PDF]

D'Amico, S. and Orphanides, A. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting" (2006) [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge" (2006), [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, 2006]

Orphanides, A., "The road to price stability" (2006), [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2006]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge", Journal of the European Economic Association, 2006, 4(2-3), 366-375 [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2005]

Orphanides, A.; Small, D. H.; Wieland, V. and Wilcox, D. W., "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006, 53(8), 1877-1893. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 1997]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy", Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8(2), 498-527. [PDF/EconPapers]  [PDF/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]

Orphanides, A., "Comment on: "The incredible Volcker disinflation"", Journal of Monetary Economics, 2005, 52(5), 1017-1023. [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Expectations, learning and monetary policy", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29(11), 1807-1808. [PDF/EconPapers]

Hermmann, H.; Orphanides, A.; Siklos, P., "Real-time data and monetary policy", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2005, 16(3), 271-276. [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A.; van Norden, S., "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37(3), 583-601. [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations" Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2005, 29(11), 1927-1950. [PDF/EconPapers]

Kim, D. H. and Orphanides, A., "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts", (2005) [PDF/FED]

Orphanides, A. and Rasche, R. H., "Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years After October 1979: Editors' Introduction", Review, 2005, Mar, 139-144 [PDF/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]

Lindsey, D. E.; Orphanides, A. and Rasche, R. H., "The reform of October 1979: how it happened and why", Review, 2005, Mar, 187-236. [PDF/CFS] [PDF/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]

Orphanides, A., "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability and Inflation:  A View from the Trenches", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, 36(2), 151-175. [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A., "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2004, 15(1), 101-124. [PDF/EconPapers]

Bloomberg, S. B.; Hess, G. D.; Orphanides, A., "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism", Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51(5), 1007-1032. [PDF/EconPapers]

Coenen, G.; Orphanides and Wieland, V., "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero", Advances in Macroeconomics, 2004, 4(1), 1187-1187. [PDF/CEPR discussion paper, 2003]

Clouse, J.; Henderson, D.; Orphanides, A.; Small, D. and Tinsley, P., "Monetary Policy when the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero", Topics in Macroeconomics, 2003, 3(1), 1088-1022. [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 633-663, April 2003. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/ECB working paper, 2000]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Historical Monetary Policy Analysis and the Taylor Rule", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 983-1022, July 2003. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 2003]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information", Journal of Monetary Economics, April 2003, 50(3), 605-631. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1998

Orphanides, Athanasios and Simon van Norden, "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time", Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(4), 569-583, November 2002. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Comment on `The Conduct of Monetary Policy with a Shrinking Stock of Government Debt' by Stacey L. Schreft, and Bruce D. Smith", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(3, Part 2), 883-886, August 2002.  

Lengwiler, Yvan and Athanasios Orphanides  "Optimal Discretion", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 104(2), 261-276, June 2002. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999

Orphanides, Athanasios "Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 92(2), 115-120, May 2002. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 2002]

Orphanides, Athanasios, and David Wilcox, "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation", International Finance, 5(1), 47-71, Spring 2002. [PDF/FED working paper, 1996]

Orphanides, Athanasios and John C. Williams, "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2:2002, 63-118. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 2003]  

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy", NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, No 9884, 2002. [PDF/NBER working paper, 2002]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Commentary on John B. Taylor's `Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate'", Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 83(4), 49-57, July/August 2001. [PDF/FED St Louis Review,2001

Hess, Gregory D. and Athanasios Orphanides, "Economic Conditions, Elections, and the Magnitude of Foreign Conflicts", Journal of Public Economics,  80(1), 121-140, April 2001.

Orphanides, Athanasios and Richard D. Porter, "Money and Inflation: The Role of Information Regarding the Determinants of M2 Behavior", in Monetary Analysis: Tools and Applications, Hans-Joachim Klockers and Caroline Willeke editors, Frankfurt: European Central Bank, 2001.  

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data", American Economic Review, 91(4), 964-985, September 2001. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1998]  

Hess, Gregory D. and Athanasios Orphanides, "War and Democracy", Journal of Political Economy, 109(4), 776-810, August 2001.  

Orphanides, Athanasios, Richard Porter, David Reifschneider, Robert Tetlow and Frederico Finan, "Errors in the Measurement of the Output Gap and the Design of Monetary Policy", Journal of Economics and Business, 52(1/2), 117-141, January/April 2000. [PDF/ECB working paper, 2001] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, Athanasios and Volker Wieland, "Inflation Zone Targeting", European Economic Review, 44(7), 1351-1387, June 2000. [PDF/ECB working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, Athanasios and Volker Wieland, "Efficient Monetary Policy Design Near Price Stability", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 14, 327-365, 2000. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, Athanasios and Richard D. Porter, "P*Revisited: Money-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Changing Equilibrium Velocity",  Journal of Economics and Business, 52(1/2), 87-100, January/April 2000. [PDF/FED working paper, 1998]

Judson, Ruth and Athanasios Orphanides, "Inflation, Volatility and Growth", International Finance, 2(1), 117-138, April 1999. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1996]

Orphanides, Athanasios and David Zervos, "Myopia and Addictive Behavior", Economic Journal, 108, 75-91, January 1998.  

Calomiris, Charles, Athanasios Orphanides and Steven A. Sharpe,  "Leverage as a State Variable for Employment, Inventory Accumulation, and Fixed Investment", in Asset Prices and the Real Economy,  Forrest Capie and Geoffrey Wood, editors, London: Macmillan 1997.

Lander, Joel, Athanasios Orphanides, and Martha Douvogiannis, "Earnings, Forecasts and the Predictability of Stock Returns: Evidence From Trading the S&P", Journal of Portfolio Management, 23(4), 24-35, Summer 1997. [PDF/FED working paper, 1997]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "The Timing of Stabilizations", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20(1), 257-279, January 1996.  

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Optimal Reform Postponement", Economics Letters, 52, 299-307, December 1996.  

Hess, Gregory D. and Athanasios Orphandies, "Taxation and Intergenerational Transfers with Family Size Heterogeneity: Do Parents with More Children Prefer Higher Taxes?'' Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(2), 162-177, May 1996.  

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Compensation Incentives and Risk Taking Behavior: Evidence from Mutual Funds", in {Risk Measurement and Systemic Risk}, Mico Loretan, editor, Washington D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1996.  

Orphanides, Athanasios and David Zervos, "Rational Addiction With Learning and Regret", Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), 739-758, August 1995. [PDF/FED working paper, 2000

Hess, Gregory D. and Athanasios Orphanides, "War Politics: An Economic, Rational Voter Framework", American Economic Review, 85(4), 828-846, September 1995.

Orphanides, Athanasios, James O'Brien and David Small, "Estimating the Interest Rate Risk of Liquid Retail Deposit Values", in The Declining Role of Banking, The 30th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1994.

Orphanides, Athanasios, Brian Reid and David Small, "The Empirical Properties of a Monetary Aggregate that Adds Bond and Stock Mutual Funds to M2", Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 76(6), 31-51, November/December 1994.  

Orphanides, Athanasios, and David Zervos "Optimal Consumption Dynamics With Non-Concave Habit Forming Utility",  Economics Letters, 44, 67-72, January 1994. 

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Labor Hoarding when Unemployment is a Worker Discipline Device", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95(1), 111-118, March 1993. 

Orphanidess, Athanasios and Robert M. Solow, "Money, Inflation and Growth", in Handbook of Monetary Economics, Benjamin Friedman and Frank Hahn, editors, Amsterdam: Elsevier North-Holland, 1990. 

Senior Adviser, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Associate Editor, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Fellow, Center for Financial Studies
Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research
International Research Fellow, Kiel Institute for World Economics

Education

Ph.D., Economics, M.I.T., 1990 
S.B., Mathematics, M.I.T., 1985 
S.B., Economics, M.I.T., 1985

Professional Experience
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1990-present
Johns Hopkins University (Visiting/Adjunct Professor), 1995-2004
Georgetown University (Adjunct Professor), Spring 1992
Goethe-University of Frankfurt, Center for Financial Studies (Lecturer), August 2002
Kiel Institue for World Economics (Lecturer), November 2004
Center for Financial Studies
Federal Reserve Board