Publications and Research Papers

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations", a chapter in The Great Inflation, from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, (2012). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A., "New Paradigms in Central Banking?", SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, (2012). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Bordo, M. D., "Introduction to "The Great Inflation", a chapter in The Great Inflation, from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, (2012). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Kim, Don H., "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 47, (01), 241-272, (2012). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations", NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, (2011). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A.; Dale, S. and Österholm, P., "Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction", International Journal of Central Banking, 7, (2), 3-39, (2011). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A., "Η Σταθερότητα του Χρηματοπιστωτικού Τομέα: Προβληματισμοί και Συμπεράσματα από την Κρίση για την Ευρώπη", Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus", (2010). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A., "Monetary Policy Lessons from the Crisis", Working Papers, Central Bank of Cyprus, (2010). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A., "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates", Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), (2010). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Imperfect Knowledge and the Pitfalls of Optimal Control Monetary Policy", Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, vol. 13, Chapter 4, pp 115-144, (2009). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Recent Policy Challenges through the Lens of Economic Forecasts", Cyprus Economic Policy Review, 3, (2), 73-79, (2009). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy",
Journal of Monetary Economics, 55, (Supplement 1), S80-S96, (2008). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]
CAMA Working Papers, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, (2008) [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Wieland, V., "Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy", Review, 307-324, July 2008. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and D`Arnico, S., "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting",
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), (2008) [PDF/EconPapers]
Discussion Papers, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, (2008). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Imperfect Knowledge And The Pitfalls Of Optimal Control Monetary Policy", Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile, (2008). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A.; Dale, S. and Österholm, P., "Imperfect Central Bank Communication - Information versus Distraction", IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund, (2008). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A., "Taylor Rules", Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), (2007). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge",
Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting
, Chapter 4, (2007). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]
Economic Review, pages 1-23, (2007). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge",
Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, (5), pages 1406-1435, (2007). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), (2007). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Kim, Don H., "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?", BIS Quarterly Review, (2007). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF]

D'Amico, S. and Orphanides, A., "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting", (2006). [PDF]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Inflation Targeting Under Imperfect Knowledge", (2006). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, 2006]

Orphanides, A., "The road to price stability" (2006)., [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2006]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge", Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(2-3), 366-375, (2006). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2005]

Orphanides, A.; Small, D. H.; Wieland, V. and Wilcox, D. W., "A Quantitative Exploration of the Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(8), 1877-1893, (2006). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 1997]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy", Review of Economic Dynamics, 8(2), 498-527, (2005). [PDF/EconPapers]  [PDF/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]

Orphanides, A., "Comment on: "The incredible Volcker disinflation"", Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(5), 1017-1023, (2005). [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Expectations, learning and monetary policy", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29(11), 1807-1808, (2005).[PDF/EconPapers]

Hermmann, H.; Orphanides, A.; Siklos, P., "Real-time data and monetary policy", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16(3), 271-276, (2005). [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A.; van Norden, S., "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 37(3), 583-601, (2005). [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 29(11), 1927-1950, (2005). [PDF/EconPapers]

Kim, D. H. and Orphanides, A., "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts", (2005). [PDF/FED]

Orphanides, A. and Rasche, R. H., "Reflections on Monetary Policy 25 Years After October 1979: Editors' Introduction", Review, 139-144, March 2005.[PDF/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]

Lindsey, D. E.; Orphanides, A. and Rasche, R. H., "The reform of October 1979: how it happened and why", Review, 187-236, March 2005. [PDF/CFS] [PDF/Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis]

Orphanides, A., "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability and Inflation:  A View from the Trenches", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36(2), 151-175, (2004). [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, A., "Monetary policy in deflation: the liquidity trap in history and practice", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 15(1), 101-124, (2004). [PDF/EconPapers]

Bloomberg, S. B.; Hess, G. D.; Orphanides, A., "The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism", Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 1007-1032, (2004). [PDF/EconPapers]

Coenen, G.; Orphanides, A. and Wieland, V., "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero", Advances in Macroeconomics, 4(1), 1187-1187, (2004). [PDF/CEPR discussion paper, 2003]

Clouse, J.; Henderson, D.; Orphanides, A.; Small, D. and Tinsley, P., "Monetary Policy when the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero", Topics in Macroeconomics, 3(1), 1088-1022, (2003). [PDF/EconPapers]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 633-663, April 2003. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/ECB working paper, 2000]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Historical Monetary Policy Analysis and the Taylor Rule", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(5), 983-1022, July 2003. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 2003]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information", Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 605-631, April 2003. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1998

Orphanides, A. and van Norden, S., "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time", Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(4), 569-583, November 2002. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, A., "Comment on `The Conduct of Monetary Policy with a Shrinking Stock of Government Debt' by Stacey L. Schreft, and Bruce D. Smith", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(3, Part 2), 883-886, August 2002.  

Lengwiler, Y. and Orphanides, A.,  "Optimal Discretion", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 104(2), 261-276, June 2002. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999

Orphanides, A., "Monetary Policy Rules and the Great Inflation", American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 92(2), 115-120, May 2002. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 2002]

Orphanides, A. and Wilcox, D., "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation", International Finance, 5(1), 47-71, Spring 2002. [PDF/FED working paper, 1996]

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 63-118, (2002) [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 2003]  

Orphanides, A. and Williams, J. C., "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy", NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, No 9884, (2002) [PDF/NBER working paper, 2002]

Orphanides, Athanasios, "Commentary on John B. Taylor's `Expectations, Open Market Operations, and Changes in the Federal Funds Rate'", Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 83(4), 49-57, July/August 2001. [PDF/FED St Louis Review,2001] 

Hess, Gregory D. and Orphanides, A., "Economic Conditions, Elections, and the Magnitude of Foreign Conflicts", Journal of Public Economics,  80(1), 121-140, April 2001.

Orphanides, A. and Porter, R. D., "Money and Inflation: The Role of Information Regarding the Determinants of M2 Behavior", in Monetary Analysis: Tools and Applications, Hans-Joachim Klockers and Caroline Willeke editors, Frankfurt: European Central Bank, (2001). 

Orphanides, A., "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data", American Economic Review, 91(4), 964-985, September 2001. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1998]  

Hess, Gregory D. and Orphanides, A., "War and Democracy", Journal of Political Economy, 109(4), 776-810, August 2001.  

Orphanides, A.; Porter, R.; Reifschneider, D.; Tetlow, R. and Finan, F., "Errors in the Measurement of the Output Gap and the Design of Monetary Policy", Journal of Economics and Business, 52(1/2), 117-141, January/April 2000. [PDF/ECB working paper, 2001] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, A. and Wieland, V., "Inflation Zone Targeting", European Economic Review, 44(7), 1351-1387, June 2000. [PDF/ECB working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, A. and Wieland, V. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design Near Price Stability", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 14, 327-365, (2000). [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1999]

Orphanides, A. and Porter, R. D., "P*Revisited: Money-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Changing Equilibrium Velocity", Journal of Economics and Business, 52(1/2), 87-100, January/April 2000. [PDF/FED working paper, 1998]

Judson, R. and Orphanides, A., "Inflation, Volatility and Growth", International Finance, 2(1), 117-138, April 1999. [PDF/EconPapers] [PDF/FED working paper, 1996]

Orphanides, A. and Zervos, D., "Myopia and Addictive Behavior", Economic Journal, 108, 75-91, January 1998.  

Calomiris, C.; Orphanides, A. and Sharpe, S. A., "Leverage as a State Variable for Employment, Inventory Accumulation, and Fixed Investment", in Asset Prices and the Real Economy,  Forrest Capie and Geoffrey Wood, editors, London: Macmillan 1997.

Lander, J.; Orphanides, A. and Douvogiannis, M., "Earnings, Forecasts and the Predictability of Stock Returns: Evidence From Trading the S&P", Journal of Portfolio Management, 23(4), 24-35, Summer 1997. [PDF/FED working paper, 1997]

Orphanides, A., "The Timing of Stabilizations", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20(1), 257-279, January 1996.  

Orphanides, A., "Optimal Reform Postponement", Economics Letters, 52, 299-307, December 1996.  

Hess, G. D. and Orphandies, A. "Taxation and Intergenerational Transfers with Family Size Heterogeneity: Do Parents with More Children Prefer Higher Taxes?'' Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(2), 162-177, May 1996.  

Orphanides, A., "Compensation Incentives and Risk Taking Behavior: Evidence from Mutual Funds", in {Risk Measurement and Systemic Risk}, Mico Loretan, editor, Washington D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1996.  

Orphanides, A. and Zervos, D., "Rational Addiction With Learning and Regret", Journal of Political Economy, 103(4), 739-758, August 1995. [PDF/FED working paper, 2000

Hess, G. D. and Orphanides, A., "War Politics: An Economic, Rational Voter Framework", American Economic Review, 85(4), 828-846, September 1995.

Orphanides, A.; O'Brien, J. and Small, D., "Estimating the Interest Rate Risk of Liquid Retail Deposit Values", in The Declining Role of Banking, The 30th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1994.

Orphanides, A.; Reid, B. and Small, D., "The Empirical Properties of a Monetary Aggregate that Adds Bond and Stock Mutual Funds to M2", Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, 76(6), 31-51, November/December 1994.  

Orphanides, A. and Zervos, D., "Optimal Consumption Dynamics With Non-Concave Habit Forming Utility",  Economics Letters, 44, 67-72, January 1994. 

Orphanides, A., "Labor Hoarding when Unemployment is a Worker Discipline Device", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 95(1), 111-118, March 1993. 

Orphanides, A. and Solow, R. M., "Money, Inflation and Growth", in Handbook of Monetary Economics, Benjamin Friedman and Frank Hahn, editors, Amsterdam: Elsevier North-Holland, (1990).

Athanasios Orphanides